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Why we build on Predict

Six weeks before DarkPool started, Mysten Labs shipped DeepBook Predict, a shared-vault binary + range options primitive on top of DeepBook V3. It bundles three things every prediction market needs but most have to invent from scratch:
  • Shared vault liquidity (PLP coins). Solves prediction-market cold-start. LPs deposit DUSDC, get an LP token, earn fees.
  • OracleSVI pricing. One OracleSVI per (asset × expiry), serves prices for every binary + range strike on that asset/expiry pair. SVI vol surface, Pyth-fed spot, alpha-decay over time.
  • Composable positions. predict::mint / predict::redeem are PTB-friendly; mint+redeem in one tx with other Move calls.
DarkPool does not fork Predict. Every mint/redeem/supply goes through Predict’s modules unchanged. Our predict_facade emits attribution events alongside, keeping DarkPool inside the DeepBook ecosystem rather than splintering it.

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Branch pin

Predict is pinned to predict-testnet-4-16. Never reference main. The branch will shift before mainnet. Live package IDs:
ObjectID
PREDICT_PACKAGE_ID0xf5ea2b3749c65d6e56507cc35388719aadb28f9cab873696a2f8687f5c785138
PREDICT_OBJECT_ID (shared)0xc8736204d12f0a7277c86388a68bf8a194b0a14c5538ad13f22cbd8e2a38028a
See Predict contract information for the canonical list.

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The $1.00 invariant

In every binary prediction market, YES payout + NO payout = 1 quote unit. Predict already enforces this via the Predict shared object’s bookkeeping and Vault accounting:
  • predict::mint_binary debits the user’s PredictManager and credits the Vault, recording a position entry keyed (oracle_id, expiry, strike, is_up).
  • predict::redeem_binary checks the OracleSVI state, computes payout (1 quote per winning unit, 0 per losing unit) minus fees, and credits the user’s PredictManager.
  • All arithmetic happens inside Predict in u128 / fixed-point as appropriate. We don’t write any of this.
Our role:
  1. Wrap these calls with our own attribution events (for agent reputation tracking).
  2. Coordinate the atomic Pyth + redeem PTB.
  3. Collect a 1% protocol fee on top of Predict’s fee.

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How positions are represented

Unlike Polymarket / Limitless, Predict positions are not standalone fungible coins. They are entries in a user’s PredictManager shared object, keyed by either:
  • Binary: (oracle_id, expiry_ms, strike, is_up)
  • Vertical range: (oracle_id, expiry_ms, lower_strike, higher_strike)
This is the v0.1 to v0.2 mental-model shift. There is no Coin<YES> / Coin<NO> for Predict markets. Those exist only for our scaffolded event markets, see Binary Event Markets.

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The predict_facade adapter

predict_facade.move is a thin adapter that emits attribution events alongside the underlying Predict call. Each entry function below is meant to be added to a PTB after the corresponding predict::* call, so the indexer sees both events. 
public entry fun attribute_binary_mint(...);
public entry fun attribute_range_mint(...);
public entry fun attribute_plp_supply(...);
public entry fun attribute_plp_withdraw(...);
public entry fun attribute_redeem(...);
Status: attribution is wired into the resolver’s settlement PTB (buildAtomicSettlementPTB → attribute_redeem) and scripts/supply-plp.ts (attribute_plp_supply). Frontend and agent-service mints are unattributed today. Wiring those is a republish-era follow-up.

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DUSDC quote asset

DUSDC (0xe95040…::dusdc::DUSDC) is the only quote asset Predict accepts. It’s the DeepBook-allowlisted USDC type on testnet. Use the DeepBook tally form to request testnet DUSDC; the return address ships with the allowlist. Return commitment: 80% sweeps on Jun 23 + Jun 28 (see scripts/return-testnet-dusdc.ts).